Synthetic demonstration data — State of Cascadia is fictional. Methodology is real.
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Improper payment rate (PERM) exposure

Eligibility Span Drift

8,876
Members affected
$19.6M
Estimated exposure
3.6
Avg months at risk
$14.0M23M
Exposure range

What this is

Member exists in both systems, but enrollment spans disagree by more than 30 days — MMIS keeps paying past the CBES termination, or starts paying before approval.

Why single-system review misses this

Both systems show a plausible, internally valid span. The gap only exists in the comparison — no single-system report ever computes it.

One member, two systems

Member CAS-00000029 — the eligibility record and the payment record, on one clock. The hatched window is the seam.

CBES eligibility spanMMIS enrollment spanthe seam — payment during span disagreement
20222023202420252026Payment during span disagreement — 3.9 mo≈ $612/mo at riskvendor cutover 10/25run date 06/26CBESeligibilityMMISpaymentCBES EXPANSION-ADULT · Kestrel County · 2021-07-05 → 2021-11-29CBES EXPANSION-ADULT · Kestrel County · 2022-05-28 → 2023-09-10EXPANSION-ADULTCBES EXPANSION-ADULT · Kestrel County · 2024-02-17 → 2025-04-06EXPANSION-ADULTMMIS EXPANSION-ADULT · Summit Health Plan · CASCADE_LEGACY · 2021-07-05 → 2021-11-29 · capitation YMMIS EXPANSION-ADULT · Summit Health Plan · CASCADE_LEGACY · 2022-05-28 → 2023-09-10 · capitation YEXPANSION-ADULT · LEGACYMMIS EXPANSION-ADULT · Summit Health Plan · CASCADE_LEGACY · 2024-02-17 → 2025-08-02 · capitation YEXPANSION-ADULT · LEGACY≈ $612 paid this month≈ $612 paid this month≈ $612 paid this month≈ $612 paid this month

The exposure math, in the open

members × avg monthly capitation × avg months of span disagreement

8,876members×$612avg per month×3.6avg months$19.6Mestimated exposure
Example members:CAS-00000029CAS-00000062CAS-00000066CAS-00000274CAS-00000314